This Thing Called Democracy…Are We Suffering from “Democratic Erosion”?
Or was the 2024 Election Simply a “New Normal” for American Democracy?
Burning Down America
The U.S. Constitution had not even been in effect for twenty five years, when this young representative democracy called the United States of America found itself at war and under attack. While we don’t have photographs of the damage that our opponent Great Britain did to our new capital, fortunately we do have this painting by American artist George Munger shown here that gives us an accurate picture of the damage inflicted on the White House in the War of 1812.
As the Library of Congress points out, “…George Munger's drawing, one of the most significant and compelling images of the early republic, reminds us how short-lived the history of the United States might have been.” On the evening of August 24, 1814, during the second year of the War of 1812, British expeditionary forces set fire to the unfinished White House in Washington, D.C. All the public buildings in the newly developing capital city, except the Patent Office Building, were put to the torch.[1]
More Recent Assaults on America
The only other time a building in our nation’s capital was physically assaulted at large scale was the Capitol Building in the insurrection of January 6, 2021, conducted in order to stop the peaceful transfer of power from incumbent Donald Trump to Joe Biden following a free and fair election. This time the assault was not by soldiers of a nation we were at war with, but by our fellow Americans. Of course, in the 2021 insurrection the Capitol, while heavily vandalized and desecrated, fortunately was not torched.
In the 1860s both our nation and its form of government, representative democracy, were attacked by Americans living in pro-slavery southern states seeking to secede from the Union and establish a slave friendly confederacy. In the 1930s, Americans harboring pro-Hitler antisemitic views rallied as part of the German American Bund against American democracy desiring our nation to become fascistic, isolationist, and Aryan.
Watershed Events in a Democracy
Certainly, the War of 1812 was a watershed event for our young republic and its democracy, as were some of the other events mentioned. The reader may be able to think of some others. It seems that a strong case can be made that, for its own unique reasons, the Presidential election of 2024 should be added to this list. While buildings in our nation’s capital were not burned nor secession occurred or the Capitol assaulted, the 2024 presidential election exudes evidence that the political winds in this country have shifted in a major way, creating many questions of what that portends for all Americans and their democracy.
The Analysts Have Begun to Weigh-in
This election is barely a few weeks old and the analysis, reanalysis, postulating, hypothesizing, criticizing, and second guessing regarding the campaigns and their outcomes is well underway. While it is early, we are hearing a multiplicity of reasons given for the Trump MAGA Republican Party’s victory and the Harris’ Democratic Party’s defeat. Political analyst Steve Schmidt has given some succinct reasons for this presidential election’s results:
“…Inflation and the cost of living were central to voters’ decisions. Trump winning wasn’t as much a surprise, as the convincing nature of his win. The Trump campaign successfully and relentlessly defined the race on issues and ideology, enabling them to become the “change agent” that the American electorate was seeking. Instead of changing the subject from inflation and the economy to a better playing field, such as focusing on Trump’s temperament, the Harris campaign decided to take the economic issues head-on. Their decision cost them the race.”[2] (emphasis mine)
Author Michael Tomasky holds to a different view that Trump didn’t win the election because of inflation, the economy, or any of things some pundits point to. Rather, Tomasky asserts it was how people perceived those issues. And how they perceived them he argues was shaped by what he calls “right-wing media” like Fox, OAN, Newsmax and others.[3]
Some of the election analysis has been more nuanced, like that of Amanda Marcotte, who points to Trump voters who “want progressivism,” backing abortion, minimum wage, and family leave. As Marcotte asserts it, “…wasn’t Democratic policy or messaging. It’s ignorance…people backed Trump’s ‘aesthetics and attitudes’ but knew nothing about his policies.” Other reasons analysts given for the election’s outcomes have more to do with chosen tactics or strategy, and much of this analysis, given the short time frame, is already quite in-depth. But you get the idea- there are a plethora reasons given for this election’s outcomes that will be studied for a long time.
What About Democracy?
But, where in all this analysis does voters’ concern for democracy come into play, if at all?
It’s a valid question. After all, Trump made it clear during his 2024 presidential campaign that if elected as President again, he would be a dictator, “but only on day one”. He made numerous comments about prosecuting those he considers his political enemies via a politization of the Department of Justice. He emphasized his second administration would execute the largest round-up of illegal immigrants in our nation’s history. He said he would consider suspending the Constitution.
The Project 2025 far right policy agenda formulated by the ultra-conservative and dark money funded Heritage Foundation was published laying out the first days of Trump’s second administration. During the campaign Trump disavowed Project 2025 because polls showed it was unpopular with voters. Yet now with the election over, all indications are that it has reemerged from the shadows as Trump’s policy blueprint for his second presidency.
Some of Trump’s first term former top staffers, including military leaders, opined publicly that they believed Trump is a fascist and a danger to U.S. democracy. Trump has made no secret of his admiration for strongman rulers like Hungary’s Viktor Orban. The list of possible actions planned by Trump or had been undertaken by him in the past that violate American democratic norms and values and perhaps our laws as well as a president’s Constitutional oath of office, are long and glaring. The Harris camp, especially as it entered the final weeks of the campaign, pointed out Trump’s publicly stated anti-democratic positions and previous actions.
So, while Trump made no effort to disguise his low esteem for democracy, democratic norms and values, as well as our Constitution, he still won both the Electoral College and the popular vote. Maybe he didn’t win by as big of margin as some have indicated, but he won, nonetheless. The American voters have spoken. Was or was not democracy at work? What gives here?
The Signs Have Been in Place for Some Time Now
As one starts looking at the evidence regarding Americans’ views today about their democracy, the role democracy played in it should not be a surprise. But for many, it might be. This election is the culmination of years of Americans’ shifting sentiments and knowledge about their democracy as much as it has been about electing someone like Trump who obviously prefers autocracy. The indicators have been there if one was watching. They are often subtle and more complex than one might first think.
One marker is “democratic erosion” among our millennial generation, those born in the early 1980s to the early 2000s. According to Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group:
“A study from Harvard’s Yascha Mounk and the University of Melbourne’s Roberto Stefan Foa published in the Journal of Democracy in January 2017 produced an even more striking result. Just 19 percent of U.S. millennials agreed with the statement that “military takeover is not legitimate in a democracy.” Among older citizens, the total was a still-surprising 43 percent. …Perhaps most alarming was the revelation that one quarter of millennials agreed that “choosing leaders through free elections is unimportant.” Just 14 percent of Baby Boomers and 10 percent of older Americans agreed.”[4]
Another marker was contained in the results of a Grinell College survey conducted in response to the events of the 2020 U.S presidential election, the January 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection, and the number of states that have since passed laws to “restrict voting in the name of improving election security.” Hanson, Rowhouser-Mylet, and Lussier from Grinnell College took the survey’s results, analyzed them, and found that: “While support for democratic principles remained strong regardless of respondent views on fraud, we found dramatic differences in the way Americans thought about these principles in practice.”[5] (emphasis mine)
Hanson et al found that those who believed in voter fraud, while supporting democratic values, supported reforms that could curtail voting rights saying:
“…Our results show that challenges to liberal democratic institutions can come cloaked in democratic language and democratic values…While virtually all Americans profess allegiance to core democratic values such as free and fair elections…they differ substantially in how to put those values into practice…”[6] (emphasis mine)
Fast forward to today where CNN’s exit poll as well as exit polls of other news media outlets indicate that voters for both presidential candidates in the 2024 election clearly expressed concerns that they believe their nation’s democracy is threatened.[7]
Dissatisfaction Rising, Trust and Confidence Falling
Concurrent with these findings, a 2021 Pew Research survey found that “…A majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the way democracy is working in the country. About six-in-ten U.S. adults (58%) say they are not satisfied with the way democracy is working in America…In addition, the vast majority of Americans (85%) said that the U.S. political system either needs major changes (43%) or needs to be completely reformed (42%). Among U.S. adults who say they want significant political reform, 58% said they are not confident the system can change.”[8]
At the same time, Americans’ trust in their government to “do the right thing most of the time” has been falling steadily since 1958 when this first began to be measured.[9] It is generally accepted by democracy experts that citizen trust is a key bedrock measure of a democracy’s health.
What’s this All Mean?
While there seems to be a consensus by the analysts of this election that inflation and the economy were the strongest drivers of its outcome, while not as prominent, the state of our democracy is in the mix. And that “mix” is not simple to decipher.
Americans that voted for either presidential candidate might not have made the state of our democracy their top issue compared to inflation, prices, and the economy. However, it was definitely on their minds. When one considers that along with the other evidence above (and there’s lots more such evidence available), it is not unreasonable to conclude that American democracy is in the least, in a state of flux, if not in crisis.
A key challenge is the finding in the Grinell College study that while “virtually all” Americans can agree on core democratic values, how they perceive what is the best way to put those values into practice differs greatly.
It’s Time for All to See our Democracy’s Fragility
At this point, we can’t say whether or not our democracy is in the kind of danger it was when it was attacked by the British in 1814 as Munger’s painting shows. But, the warning signs are there, especially if one considers that a leader of one of our major political parties has decisively moved away from holding democratic norms and values. Our democracy is possibly more delicate than we may care to admit. Democracy expert Larry Diamond concisely affirms this notion of the importance of the “idea of democracy” and how fragile it can be, writing:
“Over the years, I have found that the greatest damage to democracy is done where it is least visible: in the culture. When democracy withers it often has a lot to do with what citizens think, believe and value. Pervasive greed, opportunism, and corruption shatter trust not only in government but in our fellow citizens as well. Society then fragments as the poor cling to their local power brokers and try to capture the crumbs that fall from their political tables...”[10] (emphasis mine)
Democracy must, according to Diamond, “earn people’s faith through good governance.” If good governance occurs, democracy can survive. Or, as Diamond puts it: “If it cannot, it’s in trouble.”[11]While democratic systems and structures are used by some leaders to jettison democracy, often it is poor governance and poor economic conditions that can begin to erode people’s belief in their democracy- to what is commonly referred to as “the American dream.” Another belief begins to form and replace it, described as a perspective that “…democracy in America no longer seems to be working,” and the idea of it being “essential” for one to live in a democracy begins to fall away.[12] And if a populist leader then comes along beating that drum, look out.
In the Final Analysis…
Yes, a majority of Americans who voted have spoken, but could we Americans do ourselves a favor by willingly looking at how we are governed and ask, what can we do to be governed better? What democratic reforms need to be made? Because, even if high grocery prices, inflation, and the economy, or whatever issue is at the political forefront, are top of voters’ minds now or in the future, democracy is the structure we have with which to deal with those problems.
And if we fail to make our democratic structure better and strengthen our confidence in it, then maybe it does come down to what founder Thomas Jefferson said- “The government you elect is the government you deserve.”[13] Or, as former president Harry Truman plainly said:
“The country has to awaken every now and then to the fact that the people are responsible for the government they get. And when they elect a man to the presidency who doesn’t take care of the job, they’ve got nobody to blame but themselves.”[14]
The bottom line is, when it comes to democracy, it is up to us to decide if we cherish it enough to fix it when the evidence is clear it needs repair. And to accomplish that, it is up to us to elect the type of leaders who share those same beliefs. But until Americans are “singing off the same sheet music” as to what democracy means and how it should operate, our democracy will continue to struggle in the form of elections like that of 2024. Maybe our democracy will not have the struggle it had in 1814 shown in Munger’s painting, but the struggle could be just as significant.
We have some decisions to make as a nation, a lot of work to do, and time is running short.
[1] [U.S. Capitol after burning by the British]
[2] “The Only Way Out Now is Through,” The Warning with Steve Schmidt, November 9, 2024, Substack, Copyright 2024.
[3] Why Does No One Understand the Real Reason Trump Won? | The New Republic
[4] “Is Democracy Essential? Millennials Increasingly Aren’t Sure- And That Should Concern Us All”, by Ian Bremmer, NBC News, February 13, 2018, 4:01 AM CST, Ibid
[5] “Why Americans Support for Democratic Values May Not Protect Democracy in Practice,” by Peter Hanson, Danielle Lussier, and Georgia Rawhouser-Mylet, Grinnell College, LSE Phelan US Centre, United States’ Politics & Policy, May 12, 2021, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/05/12/why-americans-support-for-democratic-valuses-may-not-protect-democracy-in-practice
[6] “Why Americans Support for Democratic Values May Not Protect Democracy in Practice,” by Peter Hanson, Danielle Lussier, and Georgia Rawhouser-Mylet, Grinnell College, LSE Phelan US Centre, United States’ Politics & Policy, May 12, 2021, Ibid
[7] Exit poll results 2024 | CNN Politics Exit poll results 2024 | CNN Politics
[8] On July 4, how Americans see their country and democracy | Pew Research Center
[9] Public Trust in Government: 1958-2024 | Pew Research Center
[10] Ill Winds, Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, by Larry Diamond, Copyright 2019, pp 22-23, Penguin Press, Penguin Random House LLC
[11] Ill Winds, Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, by Larry Diamond, Copyright 2019, pp 16-17, Ibid
[12] Is Democracy Essential? Millennials Increasingly Aren’t Sure- And That Should Concern Us All”, by Ian Bremmer, NBC News, February 13, 2018, 4:01 AM CST, Ibid
[13] Quote by Thomas Jefferson: “The government you elect is the government you ...”
[14] The Soul of America, The Battle for Our Better Angels, by Jon Meachum, pg. 265, Copyright 2018, Merewhether LLC, Random House, A Division of Penguin Random House LLC, New York